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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading higher on Tuesday as the upside pressure from the rebounding U.S. Dollar eased up a bit in the overnight market. U.S. Treasury futures are still moving lower, which means yields are edging higher, but we’re also seeing demand for higher risk assets like stocks and dollar-denominated commodities like gold and crude oil. The firm trade in the latter is probably exerting the most upside pressure on the commodity-linked Aussie.

At 08:35 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7725, up 0.0029 or +0.37%.

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Later today at 14:35 GMT, traders will get the opportunity to react to a speech from FOMC Member Brainard. They will be looking for comments on the Fed’s bond buying activity. At 15:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings report will be watched closely for clues as to the strength of the labor market.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7643 will change the main trend to down. A move through .7820 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor range is .7820 to .7666. Its 50% level at .7743 is the first upside target. Aggressive counter-trend traders are expected to come in on the first test of this level. They will be trying to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. Buyers are going to try to overtake this level in an effort to form a new higher main bottom at .7666.

The short-term range is .7339 to .7820. If the main trend changes to down then its 50% level at .7579 will become the primary downside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday will likely be determined by trader reaction to .7743.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7743 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at .7820. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the March 14, 2018 main top at .7916 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7743 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for sellers to go after the main bottom at .7643. Taking out this level will change the main trend to down with .7579 the next major downside target. This is a potential trigger point for the start of a steep break.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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