AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 11, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Monday. There has been to follow-through to the upside following Friday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. Friday’s volatile price action was fueled by short-covering related to the mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. We could still see a follow-through rally later today, but gains are likely to be limited over the near-term because of traders betting on at least one interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia later this year.

At 03:00 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7032, down 0.0013 or -0.21%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Friday’s closing price reversal bottom has put the Forex pair in a position to shift momentum to the upside.

A trade through .7053 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally. A move through .7003 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone at .7079 to .7153 is controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD. Consider this zone resistance.

The short-term range is .6764 to .7296. The AUD/USD has been testing its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967 the last three days. Aggressive counter-trend buyers are trying to establish a support base. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair. Prices will weaken further if this area fails as support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7030.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7030 will indicate the presence of aggressive counter-trend buyers. Taking out .7053 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main 50% level at .7079, followed closely by a downtrending Gann angle at .7087.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7030 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a spike into Friday’s low at .7003. Taking out this level will negate the closing price reversal bottom with the next target angle coming in at .6999.

The uptrending Gann angle at .6999 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the short-term Fibonacci level at .6967 the next major target.