AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 13, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is under pressure on Wednesday following the release of weaker than expected domestic data and lower demand for risky assets amid renewed concerns over Brexit. Earlier in the session, Westpac Consumer Sentiment came in at -4.8%. This marked the return of pessimism among consumer and highlighted one reason for the fragile economy.

At 04:40 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7058, down 0.0024 or -0.33%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the closing price reversal bottom on March 8. A trade through .7003 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through .7207.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7092 will change the minor trend to up. This will also confirm the upward shift in momentum.

Although the Aussie is in no position to change the main trend to up, there is room for a 50% to 61.8% retracement of the recent sell-off.

A series of retracement zones are controlling the price action. From the top to bottom:

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone is .7079 to .7153. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The intermediate range is .6764 to .7296. Its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967 is a support area. This zone stopped the selling at .7003 on March 8.

The short-term range is .7207 to .7003. Its retracement zone at .7105 to .7129 is the next upside target and potential resistance area.

The minor range is .7003 to .7092. Its 50% level or pivot is new support at .7047.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor range pivot at .7047.

Bullish Scenario

The AUD/USD could firm if buyers come in to defend the minor range pivot at .7047. Look for the start of a labored rally with potential targets layered at .7067, .7079, .7092 and .7105. The chart starts to open up over .7105 with the next targets .7129 and .7137.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7047 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a spike into the intermediate 50% level at .7030. This could trigger another spike into an uptrending Gann angle at .7009 and the main bottom at .7003. If this bottom fails then look for a further decline into the intermediate Fibonacci level at .6972.