AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 20, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading sharply lower on Wednesday in response to renewed concerns about U.S.-China trade negotiations. After posting a mostly sideways trade throughout the session on Tuesday, sellers re-emerged late in the session after Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials are pushing back against U.S. demands in trade talks. The Wall Street Journal reportedly separately that trade talks between the two sides will resume next week in an attempt to strike a deal.

At 06:38 GM%, the AUD/USD is trading .7080, down 0.0010 or -0.13%.

The price action suggests that the Aussie is likely to be capped amid concerns the trade negotiations could drag on for months. Later today, we could see a volatile reaction by the Aussie to the Fed’s monetary policy decision at 14:00 GMT. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates and policy unchanged, while lowering expectations of an interest rate hike later in the year.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7041 will change the main trend to down. A move through .7120 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The major long-term support is a retracement zone at .7030 to .6967. This zone provided support on March 8 when the AUD/USD formed a bottom at .7003.

The major long-term resistance is a retracement zone at .7079 to .7153. This zone has been acting like resistance the past two weeks.

The main range is .7207 to .7003. Its retracement zone at .7105 to .7129 is also resistance. This zone stopped the rally at .7120 on Monday.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .7083 and the 50% level at .7079.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7083 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into a 50% level at .7105, followed closely by a downtrending Gann angle at .7112. This zone is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next targets a minor top at .7120, followed by a Fibonacci level at .7129.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7079 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next targets an uptrending Gann angle at .7043 and a main bottom at .7041. This is followed by a long-term uptrending Gann angle at .7034 and the major 50% level at .7030.