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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 21, 2019 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Mar 21, 2019, 07:12 UTC

Based on the early price action and the current price at .7145, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at .7153 and the downtrending Gann angle at .7157.

AUD/USD

A pair of bullish events are helping to drive the Australian Dollar sharply higher on Thursday. Early in the session, the Aussie was underpinned by yesterday’s dovish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy announcements. The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, hinted it would refrain from lifting rates in 2019, lowered the economy’s growth rate and announced it would be ending it balance sheet reduction program in September.

At 06:53 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7145, up 0.0028 or +0.37%.

Early Thursday, a report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Australia’s jobless rate fell to a near eight-year low in February. This news raised expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t cut interest rates any time soon.

AUDUSD
Daily AUD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The next upside target is the February 21 main top at .7207. A trade through .7041 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A move through .7057 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The AUD/USD is currently straddling the upper or Fibonacci level of a major retracement zone at .7153. The bottom or 50% level of this zone is providing support at .7079.

The main range is .7207 to .7003. Its retracement zone at .7129 to .7105 is new support.

The major support zone is .7030 to .6967. This zone stopped the selling on March 6 at .7003.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .7145, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at .7153 and the downtrending Gann angle at .7157.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the downtrending Gann angle at .7157 will signal the presence of buyers. This angle is the last potential resistance angle before the .7207 main top. Taking out .7207 will reaffirm the uptrend. This could trigger an extension of the rally into the longer-term downtrending Gann angle at .7204.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the Fibonacci level at .7153 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the main Fibonacci level at .7129. If this price level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main 50% level at .7105. This is followed by an uptrending Gann angle at .7093.

The tone of the market at this time is definitely bullish. However, conditions could turn bearish quickly if there is any negative news regarding U.S.-China trade talks. If this occurs then the AUD/USD could turn lower, putting the Forex pair in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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