AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 28, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly higher on Thursday after plunging the previous session in reaction to the steep sell-off in the New Zealand Dollar. Sellers hit the Kiwi hard after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that its next major change in policy will likely be an interest rate cut. As far as the Aussie Dollar is concerned, traders are already pricing in an August rate cut.

At 01:37 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7085, up 0.0006 or +0.01%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at .7168 on March 21. The main range is wide. A trade through .7168 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .7041 will change the main trend to down. This is followed by another main bottom at .7003.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .7065 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside. Another minor bottom comes in at .7057. The nearest minor top is .7148.

The price action has been choppy for months because the AUD/USD is being manipulated by a series of retracement levels.

One major retracement zone is .7079 to .7153. Inside this zone is another retracement zone at .7105 to .7129. The AUD/USD has been straddling this zone for over two weeks.

On the downside, the major retracement zone support is .7030 to .6967. The last main bottom at .7003 was formed inside this retracement zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at .7079.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7079 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this is able to create enough upside momentum then look for a potential surge into the main 50% level at .7105. This is followed by a downtrending Gann angle at .7118.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7079 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is an uptrending Gann angle at .7073. This angle has been guiding the AUD/USD higher since the .7003 main bottom on March 8.

The next downside target is a downtrending Gann angle at .7068, followed by a long-term uptrending Gann angle at .7064.

Look for a potential acceleration to the downside if .7064 fails as support. Downside targets come in at .7057, .7041, .7038 and .7030.