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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly higher on Tuesday, but posting a limited range. The trade is cautious as investors continue to digest the effects of an escalation of the trade dispute between the United States and China on Australia’s economy.

Volume is light as investors prepare for the release of the Wage Price Index early Wednesday. It is expected to come in at 0.6%. A slew of economic data from China could also move the market.

At 08:05 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6945, up 0.0001 or +0.01%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the previous day’s low. The main trend will turn to up on a trade through .7069. This is not likely to occur unless tomorrow’s wage data and Thursday’s employment reports blow away the forecasts.

The AUD/USD is also trading on the weak side of a key retracement zone at .6967 to .7030. This zone is resistance.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7019 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by yesterday’s close at .6944.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6944 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will also put the AUD/USD in a position to form a closing price reversal bottom, which could lead to a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The first upside target is the Fibonacci level at .6967. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into a downtrending Gann angle at .7016, followed by the minor top at .7019.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6944 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open to the downside with the next target angle coming in at .6880. However, there has to be a catalyst to drive the AUD/USD into this level. The next catalysts could be Wednesday’s wage report and Thursday’s employment change report.

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