AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Minor Trend Changes to Up Leading to Momentum Shift

The Australian Dollar reversed earlier weakness to move higher late in the U.S. session. The U.S. Dollar weakened after retail sales data for September missed economists’ expectations, and as the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield consolidated after hitting a multi-year high last week.

At 1558 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7139, up 0.0030 or +0.42%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through .7314 will change the main trend to up. A move through .7042 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. The minor trend turned up earlier today when buyers took out .7140. A trade through .7098 will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is .7314 to .7042. Its retracement zone at .7178 to .7210 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to show up on a test of this zone. Overtaking this retracement zone will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

If upside momentum begins to build over .7140 then look for buyers to make a run at the 50% level at .7178 over the near-term.

A break back under .7140 will be a sign of weakness. It won’t change the minor trend, but it will indicate that the earlier buying was likely fueled by short-covering and buy stops rather than new buying.

Treat .7140 like a pivot into the close.