AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – November 8, 2018 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading flat early Thursday. The Forex pair is also trading inside yesterday’s range. This typically indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. There has been no follow-through to the upside following yesterday’s strong gains. The previous session’s move was driven by increased demand for higher risk assets and a weaker U.S. Dollar.

At 0342 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7277, up 0.0001 or +0.01%.

The catalyst behind the rally was the optimism created by the U.S. mid-term elections which split Congress as expected. Traders are also squaring positions ahead Thursday’s U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions as well as Friday’s release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7314 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the August 28 main top at .7363 and the August 21 main top at .7382.

The AUD/USD is not in a position to change the main trend to down, but it is up nine sessions from the last main bottom which puts it in the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The main range is .7484 to .7020. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .7252 to .7307. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending Gann angle at .7264.

A sustained move over .7264 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the main Fibonacci level at .7307. This is followed closely by the main top at .7314. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next targets .7363 and .7382.

A sustained move under .7264 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the main 50% level at .7252. The daily chart starts to open up to the downside under this level with the uptrending Gann angle at .7200 the next likely downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this angle.

Basically, look for the AUD/USD to strengthen on a sustained move over .7307 and for the AUD/USD to weaken on a sustained move under .7252.