James Hyerczyk
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Australian Dollar
Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is trading lower early Wednesday, but posting an inside move. The chart pattern suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The price action also suggests position-squaring ahead of today’s release of the latest Fed minutes at 1800 GMT. Investors will be looking for clues as to the pacing of future rate hikes. On Tuesday, the Aussie Dollar was supported by increased demand for higher-risk currencies.

At 0750 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7137, down 0.0004 or -0.06%.

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Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A move through .7152 will signal that the buying is getting stronger. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7314. A trade through .7042 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This move shifted momentum to the upside. A trade through .7098 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is .7314 to .7042. Its retracement zone at .7178 to .7210 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

The short-term range is .7042 to .7152. Its 50% level or pivot at .7097 is support.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the AUD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .7122. This angle has been guiding the Forex pair higher since October 5.

A sustained move over .7122 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the nearest downtrending Gann angle at .7164. Since the trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of this angle. Overtaking it, however, is likely to trigger a rally into the retracement zone at .7178 to .7210.

A sustained move under .7122 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with .7098 to .7097 the first downside target.

Look for a technical bounce on the first test of .7098 to .7097. If .7097 fails as support then look for a possible break into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at .7082 and .7062. The latter is the last potential support angle before the .7042 main bottom.

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