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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly higher after posting a strong surge on Wednesday following the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy decisions. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged while signaling central bank officials would not make any policy changes through at least 2020. Meanwhile, concerns over U.S.-China trade relations continued to cap gains.

At 08:40 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6884, up 0.0007 or +0.10%.

Perhaps putting a lid on prices is whether the U.S. will slap China with additional tariffs on December 15. Later today, President Trump is expected to meet with top trade advisors to discuss this matter, three sources familiar with the plans said, according to Reuters, as Aussie Dollar traders braced for potential negative impacts.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend changed to up on a trade through the last swing top at .6862 on Wednesday. The new main bottom is .6800. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.

The market is currently testing a major retracement zone at .6876 to .6925. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6884, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .6876 and the downtrending Gann angle at .6893.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above the major 50% level at .6876 will indicate the presence of buyers. However, trader willingness to buy strength on a breakout over .6893 will tell just how committed to the long side these buyers are.

If a move through .6893 is able to generate enough upside bias then look for a potential rally into the resistance cluster at .6925 to .6929.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to take out .6893 will be the first sign of sellers. A trade through .6876 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with .6855 the next likely target. Look for an even steeper break if this angle fails as support.

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