AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .8037 Will Set the Tone Today

The AUD/USD posted a volatile two-sided trade on Thursday, driven higher by negative comments about the U.S. Dollar from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin then lower when President Trump said he wanted a “stronger dollar”.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, yesterday’s closing price reversal top may be signaling a shift in momentum to the downside.

A move through .8119 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Yesterday’s rally stopped inside a pair of two former tops at .8102 and .8124. Overcoming .8124 could trigger an acceleration into the May 14, 2015 main top at .8162 and the major long-term 50% level at .8165.

A trade through .8011 will confirm the closing price reversal top. If selling pressure increases on the move then we could see an acceleration into the main bottom at .7956. Taking out this level will change the main trend to down. This could fuel an extension of the break into the major long-term Fibonacci level at .7886.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

The new short-term range is .7956 to .8119. Its 50% level or pivot at .8037 is controlling the direction of the AUD/USD today.

A sustained move over .8037 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge .8102, .8119, and .8124.

A sustained move under .8037 will indicate the presence of sellers. This move could lead to a test of the main bottom at .7956.