AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Upside Target .6981, Weakens on Close Under .6947

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at .6947.
James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading at a five month high early Friday, driven higher by optimism about the U.S. and China signing an initial trade deal and a jump in gold prices. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier this week that the pact would be formalized at a signing ceremony, but he did not reveal a date or location.

At 04:15 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6955, up 0.0008 or +0.12%.

“We will be having a signing ceremony, yes,” Trump told reporters. “We will ultimately, yes, when we get together. And we’ll be having a quicker signing because we want to get it done. The deal is done, it’s just being translated right now.”

Additionally, speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said both countries were in close contact.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was confirmed earlier on Friday when buyers took out yesterday’s high at .6950. A trade through .6838 will change the main trend to down.

A change in trend is highly unlikely at this time, but the AUD/USD is up eight sessions from its last main bottom, which means we should start watching for a closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend to down, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The main range is .7082 to .6671. Its retracement zone at .6925 to .6876 is controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD. Holding above this zone will continue to generate a strong upside bias.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at .6947.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6947 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into an uptrending Gann angle at .6981. This angle stopped the rally on December 13. Overtaking .6981 will put the AUD/USD in an extremely strong position that could even trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6947 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the long-term Fibonacci level at .6925, followed by an uptrending Gann angle at .6918.

A close under .6947 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, look for the start of a 2 to 3 day break or 50% correction of the rally from .6838.

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.