AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Weakens Under .6093, Strengthens Over .6098

The Australian Dollar is inching higher on Friday as the currency consolidates ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Gains are likely being capped by growing fears that prolonged shutdowns around the world will exacerbate the global economic contraction and keep the Aussie under pressure.

Meanwhile, as many as 10 million people globally may have been infected by the new coronavirus, Australia’s chief medical officer said on Friday, with the under-reporting due to a lack of testing in some countries for the highly contagious respiratory disease.

At 05:34 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading 0.6072, up 0.0070 or +0.11%.

Investors are now looking to Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report for March. Economists are forecasting U.S. job losses of 100,000 for last month, a sharp reversal from job gains of 273,000 in February, according to a Reuters poll. That would be the first decline in jobs since September 2010.

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 6.65 million in the latest week from an unrevised 3.3 million the previous week. The figure far exceeded the median estimate of 3.50 million in a Reuters survey of economists.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6213 will change the main trend to up. A move through .5510 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up, but Tuesday’s closing price reversal top at .6213 and its subsequent confirmation shifted momentum to the downside. A trade through .5870 will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is .6685 to .5510. Its retracement zone at .6098 to .6236 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally at .6213 on March 31.

The short-term range is .5510 to .6213. Its retracement zone at .5861 to .5778 is the primary downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6072, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the resistance cluster at .6093 to .6098.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6093 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the uptrending Gann angle at .5950.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6098 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with potential upside targets layered at .6153, .6183 and .6213.

A trade through .6213 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside.