AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Weakens Under .6604, Strengthens Over .6644

The Australian Dollar is trading flat to lower in limited action on Thursday as investors continue to assess the impact of the coronavirus on its economy, while digesting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25-basis point rate cut from Tuesday and an aggressive 50-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve later than day.

At 04:33 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6622, down 0.0004 or -0.06%.

Earlier in the session, Australia’s Treasury Department said estimates show the coronavirus will detract at least half a percentage point off growth in the first quarter of 2020, but says it is too early to make a longer-term assessment of the impact of the virus.

Additionally, Australia’s January balance of goods and services came in slightly bullish. The trade balance came in at 5.21 billion A$ versus a forecast of 4.80 billion A$. This was down from the previously release which was reversed higher to 5.38 billion A$.

Australia’s January goods and services exports dropped 3 percent month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and January imports fell 3 percent month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The Australian Dollar showed limited reaction to the slightly stronger trade balance data.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6774 will change the main trend to up. A move through .6434 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is .6774 to .6434. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .6604 to .6644. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6622, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .6604.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6604 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the short-term Fibonacci level at .6644.

Overtaking .6644 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the downtrending Gann angle at .6669. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at .6722.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6604 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a pair of downtrending Gann angles at .6572 and .6564.

Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at .6564 could trigger an acceleration to the downside.