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AUD/USD Midday Technical Analysis November 1

The Australian dollar has spiked during trading on Thursday, exploding to the upside. However, one major issue that traders have with the Australian dollar is that it is attached at the hip to China, for better or worse. But that being the case, as long as the Sino-American relations are poor, the Australian dollar will struggle to hold onto gains.
Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD Midday daily chart, November 01, 2018

The Australian dollar spiked higher during trading on Thursday, reaching towards the 0.72 handle. That’s an area that should be rather resistive, and at this point I think that the market has gotten overstretched so I fully anticipate a pullback. Beyond that, most traders won’t want to hold onto a lot of risk heading into the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers on Friday. With that being the case, I am fading this rally, and I believe that we will probably pull back to the 0.7125 handle. If we did break above the 0.72 level, then obviously I have to rethink a few things, but the US dollar remains king, and we are already starting to see this move ran out of momentum a bit.

AUD/USD Midday Video 01.11.18

I believe that the market will be very volatile, but I still favor selling rallies as the situation between the United States and China has not changed, and therefore it’s going to hurt the Australian economy. Beyond that, there are several economic figures coming out of Australia that are a little less than desirable, and then we have the US dollar being relatively strong over the last several months, which of course hasn’t changed suddenly. I’m looking for exhaustion to start selling, and then I will do so without hesitation as the downtrend has been so relentless over the longer-term, as we have been consolidating between the 0.72 level in the 0.70 level.

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