AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Bounces Hard

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 29.09.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has bounced rather hard during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are trying to recapture the 0.64 level. The 0.64 level is an important level, but we have broken through a couple of times. It’s probably worth noting that there is a falling wedge on the chart, and that of course comes into the picture as well. If we break down below the lows of the last couple of days, it could really send the Aussie dollar reeling. Having said that, it’s probably worth noting that the market is extraordinarily oversold at the moment, so we need to look at it through that prism as well.

With this, I think you got a situation where you are still looking to fade rallies, but we need to see signs of weakness first to get involved. I think at this point in time, you need to be very cautious because we are at such low levels but I think it’s probably only a matter of time before either the top of the descending wedge offers resistance, or perhaps the 50-Day EMA, which is sitting just above there.

Underneath, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it opens up quite a bit of selling, and it could send the Aussie all the way down to the 0.62 level. Underneath there, the market probably goes looking to the 0.60 level. On the other hand, if we were to break above the top of the 50-Day EMA, we could try to approach the top of the overall descending wedge, which opens up a move to the 0.66 region.

Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to global trade and of course commodities, and is quite often used as a proxy for gold, which looks absolutely miserable at the moment. Yes, it is oversold but it is also a market that is highly volatile and doesn’t really have a lot going for it at the moment. Interest rates in America continue to climb, and that in and of itself could continue to put a bit of a ceiling in the short term moves.

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