The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday to save itself at the 0.60 level, but then collapsed towards the 0.59 level. This is a major breakdown.
The Australian dollar has broken through the 0.60 level, an area that is important due to the fact that it was the low of the financial crisis. Now that we are through that level, we need to start looking back along the lines of 20 years ago. The 0.58 level will be a support level, but it’s very likely that we could find ourselves going even lower than that due to the acceleration of the downside. Don’t get me wrong, there is going to be a vicious bounce sooner or later, but you can’t try to catch this falling knife. The Australian dollar is in serious trouble, and there is a shortage of US dollars around the world.
With that being the case, I believe that eventually this will be the “buy of the century”, but we aren’t there yet. At this point, it looks as if this market is going to continue to check off every 100 pips, which in a scenario like this that’s all you can use as a guideline. The 0.55 level could be the target eventually, but in the meantime it’s probably best to trade this market from a short-term chart, and simply fade rallies as they occur. I would be very cautious about trying to go long of this market, but if and when we get a weekly signal to start buying, that could be the beginning of the end of the downtrend. I don’t think we’re there yet, and I certainly don’t see it on the charts, but it is something in the back of my mind.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.