AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar choppy yet negative

The Australian dollar has been very noisy during the trading session on Wednesday, as we are testing lows. We initially tried to rally but then broke down a bit to make a fresh low, only to turn around and bounce from there as well. The Aussie dollar of course is going to continue to be very noisy due to the fact that it is a bit of a proxy for the Chinese economy and the US/China trade situation. At this point, we are within a couple of weeks of senior talks again, so that could cause the Aussie to be a bit quiet between now and then.

AUD/USD Video 03.10.19

All things been equal though, we are in a downtrend so that should be respected. Rallies at this point should be sold at the first signs of trouble, especially near the 0.6750 level. That’s an area that has been very negative as of late and has essentially been “fair value” before that, as the market continues to grind back and forth in that area. All things being equal, this is a market that will probably bounce slightly, but then again I wouldn’t hang onto any long position and am much more comfortable shorting, especially as the 50 day EMA is just above that cluster. A break above the 50 day EMA could have this market chasing towards the 0.6875 handle, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Either way though, I’m not interested in buying this market, I believe that there is still more downside risk.

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