AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues To Consolidate

The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to hover just below the 200 day EMA. The question now is whether or not we can break above there?
Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, November 07, 2019

The Australian dollar has rallied slightly during the trading session on Wednesday again, as we continue to see a lot of choppy action right around the 0.69 level. The 200 day EMA is above and causing quite a bit of resistance, which is also right around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. In other words, this is an area that is going to be very difficult to break above for the Aussie dollar.

AUD/USD Video 07.11.19

However, a lot of this is going to come down headlines coming out of the US/China trade talks anyway, so technical analysis, although useful most of the time, may not be the biggest driver here in the AUD/USD pair. After all, the Australian economy is highly sensitive to the Chinese markets, and of course the Chinese economy. As Australia is the largest provider of commodities to mainland China, it makes quite a bit of sense that the Aussie dollar will go back and forth with those trade negotiations. Ultimately, it will come down to a news announcement or some type of Tweet. Unfortunately, this is what the currency markets have been relegated to over the last several months as this spat between the United States and China began.

Amazingly enough, people still believe rumors, so therefore it’s likely that it will be rumors the get this pair moving. Unfortunately, there’s no way to predict that but there are levels to watch. If we can break above the 200 day EMA then I would suggest that we will probably go looking towards the 0.71 level. To the downside, the 0.67 level could be targeted, but that is going to be a major breakdown if and when it does happen.

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