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Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, September 10, 2019
A pile of colorful Australian banknotes

The Australian dollar has rallied again during the day on Monday, reaching towards the 0.69 level. I suspect that that point we may get a bit of resistance as it is roughly 50% of the massive move lower. Beyond that, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Aussie rallies for the longer-term as the US/China trading situation only gets worse. At this point in time, negotiators are supposed to speak again but we’ve seen this movie before. Quite frankly, it’s a fool’s errand to trying to believe in any type of good news coming out of that situation for the longer-term.

AUD/USD Video 10.09.19

Beyond that, the Australian dollar also will suffer at the hands of a housing situation in Australia, and what is very likely going to be a recession in Australia for the first time in over 20 years. As China goes, so goes Australia. This will be something to pay attention to, because quite frankly this is a market that will continue to be very erratic. Beyond that, we also have a lot of external concerned, so quite frankly I think it’s only a matter of time before we run into enough negativity to push this market back down. Simply waiting for exhaustion will be the way to go, and that is exactly what I’ll be doing. The 0.69 level would make quite a bit of sense, but then again so would the 0.70 level. I’m waiting for an exhaustive daily candle to start shorting as the US dollar should continue its dominance over the Aussie.

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