The Australian dollar has gone back and forth over the last couple of days, only to show signs of hesitation at the 0.75 level. This makes a certain amount of sense, due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session here on Friday, reaching towards the 0.75 handle. At this point, the market is very likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but if we can break above the highs of the Thursday candlestick, I think at that point the Australian dollar will continue to break out and go much higher. With this, I think that buying on the short-term dips makes quite a bit of sense, especially with the 200 day EMA sitting underneath there.
The commodity markets are essentially on fire, and that of course will lend a certain amount of credence to the Aussie itself, as it is so highly levered to the commodity markets overall. The market continues to see a lot of noise just above, but I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we make some type of bigger move. The US dollar itself is on its back foot, so I do think that it will be a major contributor to where we go next.
If we were to turn around and break down below the 200 day EMA, then it is possible that we may go looking towards the 0.7350 region, where the 50 day EMA is. However, that seems to be the least likely of outcomes in the short term. Expect noisy behavior, but this major breakout is about to happen with just a little bit of help.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.