AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains Again

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, but then gave up the gains in general, as we have formed a shooting star yet again. The Aussie dollar suddenly looks as if it is struggling a bit in order to continue going higher. Sometimes, a market will whisper what it wants to do, and other times it much more obvious. This subtle signal that I have seen of the last week tells me that the Australian dollar is nowhere near being able to go higher right now.

AUD/USD Video 03.01.22

If we do continue to see this pattern continued, then it tells me that the Aussie has very little hope of hanging on to gains anytime soon. The 50 day EMA sits just below, which of course is somewhat supportive, and therefore is worth paying attention to. If we were to break down below there, then the market is likely to go much lower, perhaps reaching down towards the 0.71 handle, possibly even lower than that.

On the other hand, if we were to finally break out to the upside, then one would have to assume that on a daily close above all of these wicks that the market might go looking towards the 200 day EMA. The 200 day EMA currently sits at roughly 0.7375, so that would be my target if we do suddenly see a lot of strength. That being said, the fact that we currently have trouble hanging on to gains in still are decidedly closer to the bottom of a downtrend than anything else, leads me to believe that rallies will be very difficult to accomplish.

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