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AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Plummets In Risk Aversion

The Australian dollar breaks down significantly during the Tuesday session, slicing through the 200 day EMA. Looking at the chart, clearly we are pressing our luck as far as that trend change is concerned.
Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD Price Forecast - Australian Dollar Plummets In Risk Aversion

The Australian dollar has broken down significantly during the trading session on Tuesday as the geopolitical tensions are causing major issues. The market slicing through the 200 day EMA is a negative sign, and now it looks as if the market is trying to break through the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that is highly sensitive to risk appetite around the world, and with the US/Iranian tensions getting worse, this is starting to have a bit of a “knock on effect” over here. Furthermore, the Chinese have suggested that they are not going to increase grain purchases as part of the “Phase 1 deal”, throwing a bit of shade on the possibility that it gets signed. Whether or not that is true is a completely different story, but it certainly is enough to put a lot of questions in that scenario.

AUD/USD Video 08.01.20

All things being equal, we need to see some stability before we start buying again, but if the market does break to make a “lower low”, then the market could continue to grind much lower. This is a market that has been extraordinarily volatile as of late, so I think at this point it’s probably best to simply wait for the market to stabilize a bit before putting serious money to work. The end of the session will be crucial, so if we can recapture the 200 day EMA it would be a very bullish sign. If that happens, then the Australian dollar is likely to recover and go looking towards the highs again. All things being equal though, patience will be the best way to play this market.

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