AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Pressuring Big Figure

The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday to reach towards the 0.78 level. That is an area that I had flagged as potential resistance previously, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think that if we can get above this area, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 0.80 level. The 0.80 level is a major resistance barrier that extends to the 0.81 handle, and then breaking above that allows the market to go much higher, perhaps as high as 0.90 over the next several months. It is because of this that we have seen a lot of choppy behavior.

AUD/USD Video 16.04.21

When you look at the monthly candlesticks though, it does paint a little bit of a cautious picture as the February candlestick was a major shooting star. The March candlestick also was a shooting star, so that is a very negative sign that we have had a couple of them in a row. Ultimately, this is a scenario that would suggest longer-term selling, but clearly over the last 48 hours we have seen an attempt to break higher.

If we turn around a break down below the bottom of the range for the Thursday candlestick, then I think the Australian dollar will fall right back down into the previous consolidation range, near the 0.76 handle. However, if we take out the 0.78 level on a daily close, then it is likely we go looking to the 0.80 level. Watch the commodity sector, it always has an influence on the Australian dollar it seems, but it is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index is starting to slow down, which also has a bit of a sideways influence on this market.

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