AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back

The Australian dollar has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as retail sales in Australia came out at 0.0%, month over month. This was lower than the anticipated 0.3%, and it cause a little bit a negativity to creep back into the Aussie. That being said, we have the 50 day EMA underneath and at the end of the day the Australian dollar tends to move more on the US/China trade situation than anything in Australia. Because of this, it looks as if we are trying to turn the corner, perhaps in anticipation of a “Phase 1 deal” coming down the road. We have made a “higher level” after forming a “double bottom” at the 0.67 level. At this point, it suggests that we are at least trying to turn the trend, but that takes quite a bit of time.

AUD/USD Video 06.12.19

With the jobs never coming out on Friday, I would anticipate a lot of noise but at the end of the day it makes quite a bit of sense that we should continue to see buyers jump in until something fundamentally changes between the United States and China. The 200 day EMA above painted in black is going to cause a bit of resistance but if we can break out above that level, it’s likely that we continue to go higher. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is just above there, that of course will have its resistance built and as well. If we can break above there, then this market is ready to go much higher and it becomes a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation.

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