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Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, November 12, 2019

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as the US/China trade war has become muddy yet again. As Trump suggested that the tariffs are going to be pulled back, this suggests that the US/China trade situation hasn’t gotten any better, as “Phase 1” looks to be a lot less likely or even a lot less stringent than initially thought. Ultimately, the market will continue to be very choppy and volatile as the headlines go back and forth when it comes to the situation. That being said though, the Australian dollar is at very low levels, so we don’t know whether or not this is a market that can break down much further.

AUD/USD Video 12.11.19

Beyond that, there is a bit of a major support level near the 0.67 level underneath, and therefore if that level was to be broken to the downside it would be a complete collapse of the Aussie dollar rather quickly. On the other hand, if the market was to break above the 200 day EMA, the market could then go to the 0.71 level, which is the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where we simply go in one direction or another quickly, as this pair has been so choppy as of late. With that being the case, it’s likely that the market will continue to be difficult for anybody trying to trade from a longer-term standpoint, as opposed to scalping back and forth which seems to be the favored way to trade the Aussie these days.

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