AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Roles Over

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Wednesday but has rolled over to reach towards the 0.60 level. That level should be psychologically important but if it doesn’t hold, we could very well fall towards the lows again. It should be noted that we failed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and an area that had previously seen a bit of a gap. That should continue to be of interest, and therefore I think it’s important to pay attention to the overall risk appetite around the world as the Australian dollar is so highly sensitive to the global supply chain. After all, the commodities that a lot of the world runs on, i.e. China specifically, come directly from Australia and therefore the currency tends to be a bit of a proxy.

AUD/USD Video 02.04.20

Looking at the chart, if we were to break above the 0.6250 level, then the market is likely to go towards the 0.65 handle and what would certainly be a “risk on” type of move. Ultimately, the market has a lot to choose through over the next couple of days so we will have to pay attention to how certain things come out, especially the jobs number on Friday which will be crucial. I suspect that the trading action is going to be extraordinarily difficult to handle, so therefore I would keep my position size relatively small as long as we continue to see this massive amount of volatility as you can get hurt rather quickly.