AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar slightly positive

The Australian dollar has tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, but it looks likely that the area will continue to cause issues that we find ourselves in right now. The 0.7250 level has attracted a lot of attention, and I think that it’s essentially “fair value” of the longer-term consolidation area. Ultimately, this market will continue to be driven by the US/Chinese trade relations, which I think are going to get better anytime soon. Granted, there will be politeness in Argentina, and perhaps even some vague statement about trying to work things out, but at the end of the day there won’t be any details.

AUD/USD Video 29.11.18

In that scenario I would expect the Australian dollar to rally in the short term, only to be sold off at higher levels. That’s been how this is worked out so far, disappointment after initial hope. So far, that playbook has been what we have seen, so I don’t think that changes anytime soon. I’m looking to fade rallies as they occur, with an eye on the 0.70 level underneath as a potential target. That being said, if the Americans and the Chinese do come up with something, that it is possible we could break out with a move above the 0.75 level showing that the trend has reversed and we should go much higher. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but at this point I think we are essentially on hold until Trump and Xi get together.