Christopher Lewis
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The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday to reach towards the 0.78 handle. That is an area where we have seen a lot of resistance, but one would think that since we are revisiting this area, we have to make some type of decision rather soon. Because of this, we are either going to pull back and start falling towards the 50 day EMA again, or we may finally make the breakout. A lot of this comes down to the stimulus package coming out the United States, and now it looks as if the market is trying to price and some type of reflation of the economy.

AUD/USD Video 16.02.21

Having said that, the reality is that the market does not look like it is ready to go straight up in the area, but if it did break above the 0.78 handle, it is likely that we could go to the 0.80 level. That is obviously a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a lot of attention, so I think it makes sense that we try to get there. Having said that, we may need to pull back a bit in order to find more momentum. The 50 day EMA is sitting underneath and offering significant support, so if we were to break down below there, we could see something a little bit more negativity jumping into this marketplace. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to continue to be noisy, but we have most certainly been in an uptrend for quite some time. With that being the case, I am not a seller until we break down below the 50 day EMA, but at the same time I believe that it would take something rather significant to make that happen.

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