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AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar under pressure

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but has found enough resistance near the 0.68 level to turn things around and start falling again. With the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to cut monetary policy going forward, the Aussie finds itself under pressure.
Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, August 13, 2019

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally to kick off the week on Monday but then turned around to show signs of weakness as people are starting to bet that the RBA may have to do something extraordinary with interest rates. If that’s going to be the case, it will obviously weigh upon the currency, as interest rate differential is a huge thing. Beyond that, this is a market that is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy, which is in the midst of a trade war with the Americans as you know. Ultimately, this is a market that is used as a proxy for China, and with the Chinese markets underperforming, it makes sense that the Australian dollar has suffered.

AUD/USD Video 13.08.19

Beyond that, we have broken the 0.68 level in tested it again, which of course is a very negative sign. Remember, I had been saying for quite some time that the 0.68 level was crucial, and now that we have broken below there it’s obvious to me that we are going to continue to go lower. Because of this, I think that the market could go down to the 0.65 handle underneath which is massive support. Ultimately, I believe that level should be interesting from a longer-term standpoint as well, as it shows up on the monthly charts. If that were to give way, the Australian dollar would be extraordinarily soft and difficult to own. All things being equal, it looks like we have our next move to the downside.

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