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AUD/USD Sellers Eyeing .7413 – .7354 Retracement Zone

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Apr 13, 2022, 07:14 UTC

The direction of the AUD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7429 and .7413.

AUD/USD

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The Australian Dollar is edging lower against the U.S. Dollar early Wednesday, while tracking the wild swings in its New Zealand counterpart. Aussie traders are also reacting to a slight rise in U.S. Treasurys as well as expectations of aggressive rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, starting with a possible 50-basis point raise in May.

At 06:54 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7433, down 0.0021 or -0.28%. On Tuesday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA) settled at $73.97, up $0.43 or +0.58%.

Traders are also monitoring risk sentiment which is mixed in overnight action and disappointing economic data from China.

Asian shares and U.S. futures are moving higher on Wednesday as U.S. inflation figures released the previous day were not as high as markets feared, causing U.S. yields to pause their recent surge. Meanwhile, much weaker-than-expected import data from China also weighed on the outlook, though it added to views Beijing will have to ease policy again soon.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7399 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .7661 will change the main trend to up.

On Tuesday, the AUD/USD posted a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. A trade through .7494 will confirm the chart pattern, while shifting momentum to the upside.

The AUD/USD is currently testing the lower end of the main retracement zone at .7429 to .7538. The short-term retracement zone at .7413 to .7354 is potential support. The two zones combine to form a support cluster at .7429 to .7413.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7429 and .7413.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7429 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at .7494.

Taking out .7494 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into the pair of Fibonacci levels at .7538 and .7561.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7413 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick test of .7399.

Taking out .7399 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a sharp break into .7354. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with .7165 the next major target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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