AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Breaks Down for the Week

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 24.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the week, slicing through the 50-Week EMA. We have also broken through the 0.68 level, and now are threatening the 0.67 level. The market continues to be very choppy in general, and longer-term traders continue to be stymied by the lack of overall momentum. I think of them as being stuck between 2 major forces at the 0.69 level and the 0.66 level underneath.

At the moment, there are a lot of questions as to what’s going on with the global economy, and that of course has its influence on the Aussie as it is a currency that is highly connected to the idea of commodity exports. If we were to break down below the 0.66 level, that’s probably a major “risk off sign” for a lot of other markets, but it should send the Aussie dollar down to the 0.65 level, perhaps even down to the 0.64 level. On the other hand, if we get a huge “risk on rally”, it has the opposite effect on the Aussie, sending it higher. If we were to take out the 0.69 level, then it’s very likely we go looking to the 200-Week EMA, which is just a bit above the 0.70 level.

Expect a lot of choppy volatility, but that makes a lot of sense if you think about it, as traders around the world have no idea what to do with themselves. There’s a lot of uncertainty out there, so that does put a bit of a ceiling in the market going forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.