AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Falls Significantly

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 11.12.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen significantly to break down below the 50-Week EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to see the 0.65 level underneath as a significant support level, and the 0.67 level above. All things being equal, the 50-Week EMA is sitting right in this same general vicinity, so I think you have to keep that in mind. We have also bounced from the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which is also near that 0.65 level.

On the upside, if the market were to break above the 0.67 level, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 0.69 level. All things being equal, this is a situation where market participants will continue to look at this through the prism of trying to find value, at least in theory, but if we were to break down below the 0.65 level, then it’s likely that the market goes down to the 0.64 level.

The Aussie dollar is highly levered to risk appetite, and of course commodities. Furthermore, the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Asian economies as well, so all of these things have to be paid attention to as to whether or not they can drive the value of the Aussie to the upside. On the other hand, if we start to see more of a general “risk off attitude” around the world, that could have people looking for the US dollar for safety again.

Longer term traders are probably going to struggle a bit in the next couple weeks, as traders are focusing more on the holidays and less on the financial markets, so I think you are probably relegated to trading short-term back-and-forth range bound strategies if you are involved at all.

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