AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Rallies Again

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 04.12.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the course of the week, crashing into the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The 61.8% Fibonacci level coincides with the 0.67 level, which is a significant barrier. If we can break above that, then it’s likely that we could go look into the 0.69 level. The 0.69 level sets just below the 200-Week EMA, so it all ties together for a nice target.

That being said, it is worth noting that the pair tends to be a barometer for risk appetite, and risk appetite has most certainly climbed as of late. Furthermore, the biggest driver of this market as of late has been interest rates coming out of the United States, which have been dropping. Falling interest rates make the US dollar a little less attractive, and as a result you see its value drop against other currencies. Furthermore, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the overall global growth climate, so please keep an eye on that as well. The Australian dollar is so highly levered to commodities that growing economies need, that it is a play on whether or not the market is going to take off to the upside.

Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities going forward and have to be looked at as such. However, if we were to break down below the 0.65 level, that could be a resumption of the downtrend. Keep in mind that December is a bit thin when it comes to liquidity, especially closer to the holidays, so that is something that needs to be paid close attention to. Ultimately, we are at an inflection point.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.