AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Tech Traders May Determine Direction This Week

James Hyerczyk

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading nearly flat early Monday. Volume is below average as well as volatility. There are no major economic reports from Australia and New Zealand today so investors are searching for a catalyst. Last week, investors had the opportunity to react to central bank activity, economic reports, political and geopolitical events.

At 0600 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7922, down 0.0004 or -0.05% and the NZD/USD is at .7315, up 0.0005 or +0.07%.


Earlier in the session, the New Zealand Visitors Arrivals report came in down 5.3%. The previous number was revised down to 4.9%. Credit Card Spending rose 7.2%, down from the previous 8.3%.

Later today at 1430 GMT, Australia will release the Conference Board’s Leading Index.

There are no reports from the U.S.



In the absence of fundamental news, technical chart patterns may drive the price action this week. The charts show the AUD/USD in a range. The breakout level on the upside is .7962. The breakout level on the downside is .7807. If the Aussie stays in this range then look for a two-sided trade on both side of .7884 to .7866.

The NZD/USD posted a major reversal last week at .7223. If the upside momentum created by the move continues then .7390 will become the primary upside target.

Stripping away the political and geopolitical events that we can’t predict, the primary focus for investors this week will be the Jackson Hole symposium. We’re not sure what will emerge from the speeches but we have to be ready since they are likely to deal with monetary policy.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at the conference, but after the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting showed members expressing concern about soft inflation, she is not likely to give new guidance on Fed policy.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the Fed conference, two sources familiar with the situation said, tempering expectations for the ECB to start charting the course out of stimulus.

In other news, speculators reduced their negative bets on the U.S. Dollar this week to $8.84 billion from $10.23 billion in the latest week through August 15, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

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