AUDUSD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Plunges

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 21.06.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the session on Tuesday, as it looks like we are now threatening the 200-Day EMA. The RBA Meeting Minutes were released overnight, and the market is now starting to price in the idea that perhaps the Australians are not nearly as hawkish as the surprise interest rate led them to believe. We had previously been in a massive consolidation area but have exploded in volatility over the last couple of weeks to blow through the bottom and then turn around and blow through the top.

The 200-Day EMA is an indicator that many people pay close attention to, so it’ll be interesting to see how we behave once we get there. If we do break down below there, it opens up the possibility of moving down to the 50-Day EMA. All things being equal, I think this remains a market that will continue to be very noisy, and therefore you need to be cautious about your position size. That said, we are setting up for a potential bounce in this area, but we need to see some daily candlestick that suggests the buyers have returned. Yes, it’s easy to say that, but waiting will be the psychological game you will be playing now.

If we can turn around and recapture the 0.68 level, we may grind our way back to the 0.70 level above. The Bulls are looking at that, but we will have to wait and see whether or not we can pick up the momentum. Keep in mind that the market continues to see a lot of questions asked of the Federal Reserve and whether or not they can continue to raise interest rates. At this point, the market is in a bit of a manic phase, so protecting your trading capital will be paramount. Whether or not we get any clarity remains to be seen, but make sure that you scale into a position instead of going “all in” right away. All things being equal, this is a situation where the market continues to be noisy. Therefore, you have to let the market prove itself to you on any particular position to start adding.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.