AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Probe Higher

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 15.06.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as it looks like we are probing toward the 0.68 level. The Reserve Bank of Australia has recently surprised that the market with a rate height, and of course the Federal Reserve has a meeting during the Wednesday session, and therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that you would see a little volatility during the day. The question now is whether or not we can break above the 0.68 level and sustain that rally. If we do, then it’s likely that the market could go much higher, perhaps opening up a move to the 0.70 level.

It’s probably worth noting that we have gone parabolic over the last couple of weeks, and therefore it’s likely that we can see a little bit of a pullback. Quite frankly, I’m a bit surprised that we have not seen that happen yet, but Wednesday certainly could be the day if the Federal Reserve shocks in the market. It looks as if the market is assuming that the Aussie will simply rip to the upside, and I think the market is getting the message a bit wrong, but due to the fact that the Federal Reserve will do what it can to tamper the animal spirits of the market. Whether or not the market chooses to listen is a completely different story, as the markets have been ignoring the Fed for quite some time.

Underneath, we have the 200-Day EMA near the 0.6750 level, which is your first area of support. If we were to break down below there, then it’s possible that we could drive all the way down to the 0.66 level, which would just simply be the same consolidation area we had been in previously. On the other hand, if we do break above the 0.68 level, then it is likely that we could go look into the 0.70 level above. Breaking that gets really aggressive to the upside, but ultimately, I think this is a situation where we continue to see a lot of noise more than anything else. I would be very cautious at this point.

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