AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Struggle at The Same Level
AUDUSD Forecast Video for 31.03.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy trading out there. Ultimately, this is a situation where the noise will continue to be quite deafening, but the 0.67 level has been an area of both support and resistance multiple times in the past, so I don’t see any reason why it will change anytime soon. In fact, I see a significant amount of resistance above the 0.67 level that extends to the 0.68 level, with a 50-Day EMA slicing through the middle of it.
In fact, we have already seen a couple of shooting stars form that try to pierce that area last week, and the fact that we had them form back to back does suggest that there is a lot of trouble above. Do not get me wrong, I don’t necessarily believe that it’s going to be impossible to break above there, just that it’s going to be very tough. After all, hope burns eternal, and people are still trying to sell the US dollar on hopes that the Federal Reserve will come and bail everybody out. There are a lot of stresses in the banking system, and this has people believing that the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy much sooner than they say they will.
However, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in general and have shown no proclivity to stop doing so. Granted, they have only raised interest rates by 25 basis points during the last meeting, but it does not look like they are ready to stop anytime soon. Most traders are betting on the Federal Reserve finally acquiesced in, and that’s exactly what you see on most charts. However, the Australian dollar has been a bit of an underperformer compared to other currencies against the greenback, so that could be something that is worth paying attention to. If the US dollar pics of strength around the world, this pair will more likely than not fall harder than many others. If we can break down below the 0.66 level, it’s very likely that we continue to go much lower, perhaps reaching down to the 0.63 level over the longer term.
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