AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Test Channel

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 10.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar bounced ever so slightly during the trading session on Friday, as the market reached the bottom of the channel. Keep in mind that it was Good Friday, so only a few Asian countries were open for trading. That being said, we are still in the same way that we were before the holiday. That being said, the 0.6650 level is an area that could offer a little bit of support, but if we were to break down below that level, it’s likely that the market could go down to the 0.66 level, followed by a steeper fall. In fact, at that point, you would have to assume that we just broke down through the bottom of a bearish flag.

The 50-Day EMA sits near the 0.6750 level and is starting to drift a bit lower. After that, the 0.68 level also has the 200-Day EMA sitting right there, offering a significant amount of resistance. Ultimately, this is a market that has been in the channel, but now the question is whether or not we are going to break down below there. The market continues to be very noisy and therefore I think you need to be very cautious about the amount of risk you put into the market.

Furthermore, you need to bear in mind that the Friday session features the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, but at the same time, the markets will be closed during that same time. Ultimately, that will have a significant amount of influence on where we go next, but there will be a true reaction until we get back to the United States on Monday, as most of Europe will be on holiday, and Asia will probably have just limited amounts of trades taken. Ultimately, we are on the precipice of a bigger move, and those levels mentioned previously are areas that we need to pay close attention to. Ultimately, volatility could continue to be a major issue. With this being the case, you need to be cautious about the position size until the market makes a definitive move in one direction or the other. With that being the case, the market is one that you need to be cognizant of your position sizing.

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