AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Test the Channel

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 07.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are reaching toward the bottom of an overall channel that we had been in for a while. Because of this, the market looks as if it is trying to figure out what it wants to do, because a breakdown below this uptrend line, that would obviously be a very negative turn of events. Furthermore, you should probably keep an eye on the fact that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to global growth, as it is a commodity currency.

Keeping eye on commodities around the world will be crucial to determine where the Australian dollar could go, but you should also remember that the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently decided to pause rate hikes, something that shows that perhaps the Aussie is going to soften a bit. A lack of global growth, and of course commodity issues as far as demand is concerned will continue to weigh upon the Aussie. Furthermore, you need to keep an eye on the fact that if there is a lack of global demand for commodities and of course a significant economic slowdown, that does tend to help the US dollar, so it all ties together quite nicely.

On the upside, the 50-Day EMA which sits right around the 0.6750 level is a potential target, and then of course the 200-Day EMA, which is sitting right at the top of the channel that we had been in for a while. That obviously would be a large technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, so I think it all comes together in order to set up quite nicely for a technical trade.

Pay attention to bond yields in America, that will obviously have a lot to do with where we go, because if they will start to rise again, then it will almost certainly send this market lower. Regardless, I think this is a market that is going to continue to be very choppy in general, so it’s probably worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of days, which of course Friday is Good Friday so liquidity could be a bit of an issue.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.