AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Drifts in Same Consolidation

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 25.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has drifted slightly lower during the Monday trading session as we continue to see a lot of consolidation overall. All things being equal, this is a situation where we are looking at the 0.66 level underneath as significant support and the 0.68 level as significant resistance. What I find particularly interesting about the resistance levels is that the 200-Day EMA currently sits there. Therefore, it would make a lot of sense for that level to continue holding. Underneath, the 0.66 level has been important a couple of times, but at the same time, you can also look at the chart and suggest that perhaps we are trying to form some type of bearish flag.

With all that being said, I think we continue to see more of a “fade the rally” type of attitude here, especially as the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stepped back from its rate hiking cycle, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we see the Australian dollar lose some of its allure. On the other hand, the US dollar is used as a safety currency, and there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to the global economy. Remember, the Australian economy is highly levered to commodities, particularly hard commodities such as copper and iron. If global economic growth starts to slow down, it makes quite a bit of sense that the demand for Australian goods will drop.

In general, there is a situation where the Aussie dollar will continue to be lackluster, and therefore it does make a certain sense that the US dollar will benefit from this. On the other hand, if the market were to start to panic based on some type of situation in the economy, then it does make quite a bit us is that the US dollar will pick up quite a bit of momentum, perhaps reaching all the way down to the 0.63 level, based upon the “measured move” of the bearish flag. If we do somehow break above the 200-Day EMA, then the Aussie could go look into the 0.70 level, but that seems to be the least likely of scenarios.

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