AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Drops Lower

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 26.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied initially during the trading session on Tuesday but gave back gains as we continued to see the US dollar pick up a certain amount of strength. Ultimately, the market looks like it is trying to break down to that 0.66 level and then perhaps break down below. If the market does break down below there, then it’s likely that we could go down to the 0.64 level, followed by the 0.62 level. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility and of course, correlation to the risk appetite in general.

The size of a candlestick is interesting, but the reality is that the market has been very choppy for a while, and it’s possible that we may be forming some type of bearish flag. If we do break down below the overall region that we are in, the “measured move” opens up the possibility of a move all the way down to the 0.63 level. That would obviously be a very “risk off” type of environment, and therefore I think you would see the US dollar picking up strength out of fear more than anything else.

If we do rally from here, then the 50-Day EMA would be the first major resistance barrier, which sits right around the 0.6750 level. If we break above that level, then it’s possible that the market goes looking to the 200-Day EMA, which is near the 0.68 level. That being the case, I think there’s so much in the way of resistance between here and there that it is only a matter of time before we see signs of exhaustion, and therefore traders would come back in the market to start shorting again. The market continues to see a lot of volatility and of course concerns about global growth which has a major influence on the Australian dollar itself as it is a commodity currency and of course the Australian economy is highly levered to Asia. With this, pay close attention to what overall risk appetite is, and that will give you an idea as to what the Aussie dollar will be doing.

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