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AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains

By:
Christopher Lewis
Published: Mar 15, 2023, 13:41 UTC

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but struggled near the 0.67 level yet again.

Australian Dollar, FX Empire

In this article:

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 16.03.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but struggled at the 0.67 level yet again. This is an area where we had previously seen support, and now it looks as if market memory has come back into the picture to send the Aussie lower. This makes a certain amount of sense considering there’s a lot of “risk off” attitude out there due to the fact that major banks are starting to struggle, meaning Credit Suisse. If that’s going to be the case, there will be a run to safety currency such as the US dollar as there will be a run toward the bond market.

Underneath, the 0.6550 level is an area that has previously been important, so therefore if we were to break through there, it would likely need to send this market down to the 0.64 level. The Australian dollar of course is highly sensitive to risk appetite so I think this continues to be a very noisy situation, as traders hope the Federal Reserve is going to step out and cut interest rates, with the Fed Fund Futures markets suggesting there could be 100 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

Any rally at this point in time will have to deal with not only the 0.67 level, but also the 0.68 level. The 0.68 level is a significant barrier, and if we were to break above there it would obviously be a very bullish sign. The 200-Day EMA sits near the 0.6850 level and is dropping at this point. That of course could be a large technical barrier that will be difficult to get above any time soon. It’s also worth noting that we had bounced high enough to hit the 50% Fibonacci level from the massive selloff previously, and now it looks like we are ready to go much lower, perhaps reaching down to the 0.62 level where we had bounced from to begin with. It will be very noisy, but it certainly looks as if the Australian dollar is struggling to find its footing for a bigger move anytime soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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