AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back From 200-Day EMA

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 10.05.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has pulled back from the 200-Day EMA, and therefore it looks as if the market is not ready to break to the upside for a bigger move. That being said, it’s probably time to get rid of the idea of the bearish flag drawn on the chart and more or less a time when you start to look at more consolidation than anything else. That being said, it is difficult for the market to decide as the risk appetite seems to be all over the place.

In general, this is a situation where traders must continue to look at the world through a risk appetite spectrum. After all, the Australian dollar is highly correlated to the commodities markets and Asian growth. The 200-Day EMA of course, is an indicator that will continue to attract a lot of attention, so if we were to break above it, the market would suddenly start to look at the idea of potentially going to shift toward the 0.70 level above. On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the lows over the last couple of days, the market could reach the 0.66 level, an area that has been in massive support. All things being equal, this is a market that is still trying to determine whether it’s going to stay in the consolidation area between 0.68 and 0.66, or if we are finally ready to take off in one direction or the other.

Another thing to pay close attention to is how the US dollar is behaving in general, as the effect of the greenback will be felt across the spectrum of Forex pairs, and this, of course, will be felt in the Australian dollar exchange rate. Ultimately, I think we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior and therefore, we need to be very cautious with our position sizing, and of course a lot of attention to the stop loss as well, because once we finally do take off in one direction or the other, then it’s possible that the market could make a huge move.

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