AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Slams Into 50-Day EMA

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 14.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied again during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 50-Day EMA to show signs of life again. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to continue to see a lot of noise between the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA, which is about what you would expect under normal circumstances. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to have to wrestle with the idea that the global economy is slowing down, despite the fact that it looks like inflation is doing the same in the United States. While that will weigh upon the US dollar, the Australians have already walked away from interest rate hikes, so it does look to me like sooner or later we are going to see this market make a bigger decision.

The 0.68 level is a major resistance barrier, and breaking above that, which would also be breaking above the 200-Day EMA, would be a very bullish sign indeed. Alternatively, if we do that then I think the market could go racing toward the 0.70 level, at least until we start to contemplate the idea of a global slowdown. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve is going to come bail everybody out, and unfortunately with the behavior that we have seen out of the Federal Reserve for the last 14 years, one can hardly blame them.

I suspect at this point the market is more likely than not to try to work against the US dollar, but keep in mind that it could eventually come back to the dollar as traders run for safety. In other words, volatility is going to be worse, not better. However, in the short term it does look like we’ve made a decision, and therefore I think you got a situation where you have to be cautious with your position size, but clearly the Federal Reserve is just now starting to see its past rate hikes slink through the economy, and therefore I think you got a situation where you probably will have a nice opportunity given enough time to look to the short side, but in the immediate future, momentum is taking over to the upside.

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