AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Still Confused

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 21.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to hover just below the 50-Day EMA indicator. This is an indicator that a lot of traders will pay close attention to, so it’s probably not a huge surprise to see that we are a bit hesitant. Furthermore, we are in the middle of a larger consolidation area, with a 0.66 level underneath being support and a 0.68 level above being resistance. Because of this, we are essentially at “fair value”, and therefore it makes sense that we hang out in this area for a while.

Furthermore, it’s difficult to trade in an environment like this when you are essentially at “fair value” because there’s no real reason for one side or another to suddenly take off. In this environment, you need to look at the larger consolidation area and recognize that there are a couple of areas where you could place trades, but this is not one of them. The 200-Day EMA sitting just above the resistance also adds yet another layer of potential selling pressure, so I think at this point you need to be very cognizant of that area.

That being said, keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to the global economy and risk appetite in general. As there are so many questions out there when it comes to what’s going to happen in the economy, it’s difficult to get overly excited about the Australian dollar in this environment. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked of it, and therefore I think you need to look at it through the prism of whether or not it has gotten too cheap or gotten too expensive. Using a range bound trading system is probably the way to go, and therefore I think some oscillators may come into favor such as the Stochastic Oscillator or even the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator. Either way, this is a situation where you think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of overbought and oversold until something changes.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.