AUD/USD forecast for the week of September 25, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar had a volatile week during the past 5 sessions, reaching as high as the 0.81 handle, and dipping as low as the 0.79 level. We continue to dance around the 0.80 level, an area that is important on charts going back several decades. It’s not surprising that we would continue to see choppiness in this area, because quite frankly this dictates where we go for the next several months. I believe that the 0.78 level below begins a significant amount of support that extends down to at least the 0.7750 level, as that region was the resistance that we broke out of recently. I still think that the buyers will continue to take over, especially considering if the gold markets rally, which look ready to happen. If gold breaks above the $1300 level, I believe that eventually money will go flowing into the Aussie dollar.

Once we break out to the upside, I think that the market will probably go looking towards the 0.85 handle, and then eventually the 0.90 level after that. Ultimately, the market isn’t going to be easily sold until we get well below the 0.76 level. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to favor dips as buying opportunities, and although the US dollar has strengthened, it is probably only a matter of time before the “risk on trade” comes back into play, meaning that we will start buying higher yielding currencies and assets again. That is good for this market, and although noisy, I believe that we are trying to dictate where we go for the next year based upon this region. Because of this, a certain amount of flexibility and patience will be needed to take advantage of whatever impulsive move we get next.

AUD/USD Video 25.9.17