AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – .7654 Trigger Point for Acceleration to the Upside

The AUD/USD surged on Friday on reports Michael Flynn may implicate President Donald Trump in the Russian investigation. According to ABC News, retired General Michael Flynn would testify that he was directed by the Trump administration to make contact with Russia.

Early Friday, Flynn pleaded guilty to knowingly making materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statements to FBI agents, in a plea hearing in Washington, D.C. federal court. This surprise news drove down the U.S. Dollar as investors took protection in so-called safe haven or lower-yielding assets.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the upside on Friday with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through .7644 will change the main trend to up. This could lead to an eventual rally into the next main top at .7729. A move through .7551 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could lead to a test of the next main bottom at .7532. Taking out this bottom could trigger an acceleration to the downside. The daily chart is wide open under .7532 with the next major target the June 2 bottom at .7572.

The AUD/USD is trading inside a major retracement zone bounded by .7642 and .7527. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

The main range is .7729 to .7532. Its retracement zone is .7630 to .7654. This zone stopped a rally on November 27 at .7644.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Although the rally on Friday was news driven, we could see a continuation of the move if the Russia investigation starts to get inside Trump’s inner circle. Longer-term, the market has priced in a Fed rate hike in December and probably the passing of the tax reform bill so the Russia investigation will be the wild card the next few weeks. Furthermore, there is also the possibility of a government shutdown on December 8.

The chart indicates that the trigger point for a surge to the upside is .7654. Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of that level. Given the shift in the short-term fundamentals, this price may be the most important level of the week.

The trigger point for a steep sell-off is .7532.