AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 18, 2016 Forecast

The AUD/USD posed an inside move, higher close on Friday, finishing at .7719, up .0025 or 0.32%. The inside move indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. Most of the major players were on the sidelines ahead of the OPEC production decision meeting in Doha, Qatar on Sunday.

The decision to implement an output freeze should have an effect on the Australian Dollar since the recent surge in crude oil prices has had a positive effect on the commodity driven Aussie. A decision to freeze output should help boost the AUD/USD initially, but the rally is likely to be limited because many investors believe the move will have very little impact on the global supply glut.

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Friday’s close at .7719 has put the market in a position to take out the last main top at .7722 and the July 1, 2015 main top at .7737.

Based on Friday’s close at .7719, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term main top at .7737.

A sustained move over .7737 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge the steep uptrending angle at .7771. Overtaking this angle will mean the buying is getting stronger with the next target a longer-term uptrending angle at .7807.

Crossing to the strong side of the angle at .7807 will put the AUD/USD in a bullish position with the June 18, 2015 main top at .7848 the next upside target.

A failure to overcome .7737 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is open to the downside with the first two targets coming in at .7652 and .7631.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7737 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the bulls or the bears are in control.

We’re looking for volatility today and a possible two-sided reaction to the OPEC oil exporter’s decision on output levels.